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AUGUST 7,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:54 P.M. ET: 

ECONOMIC SHOCK – From the Washington Examiner:   All of the employment gains among women since the recession hit in December 2007 have been taken by foreigners, even at a time when the numbers of U.S.-born women surged more than 600,000, according to new federal statistics.  The jobs data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed gains in the "employment level" among "foreign born women" and losses among "native born women."  I certainly have nothing against the foreign born.  Most of us are descended from immigrants.  But the predicament of native-born American women cannot be denied.  Maybe the "women's" organizations will start showing some interest in this.

ANOTHER PRESIDENTIAL REST – From the Washington Free Beacon:  President Obama will depart the White House with his family for a vacation on the Massachusetts island of Martha’s Vineyard Friday afternoon, one day earlier than his original scheduled departure date.  The Associated Press reported that the Obama family moved up the date of departure, extending their summer vacation to 17 days, more than four times the length of the average American vacation. In fact, Obama’s summer break is one day longer than the total amount of vacation time the average American worker is allotted for an entire year.  The first family will reside in the same $12 million mansion in Chilmark that they rented last year. Positioned on 10 acres of land, the 8,100-square-foot home houses seven bedrooms and nine bathrooms. The estate is enhanced by a dual basketball/tennis court and an infinity pool.  He kind of throws it in our face, doesn't he?  Just another man of the people.

VULGAR – From AP:  HAVANA (AP) — A $3 million yacht left Key West this week with two barbeque grills, 250 channels of satellite TV and a just-in-case plan for rescuing stranded Cuban rafters encountered in the Florida Straits.  After four hours smooth sailing, the Still Water tied up at Havana's Hemingway Marina. The well-heeled passengers breakfasted on smoked salmon and pastries, then boarded an air-conditioned Cuban government bus for a day of touring the city.  The Cold War made the Florida Straits into a stage for nuclear showdown and a graveyard for thousands of Cuban rafters seeking better lives in the United States. Now, normalization of the long-tortured U.S.-Cuba relationship is transforming the 90 miles between the U.S. and Cuba back into a playground for hulking cruise ships and sleek luxury yachts.  I'm sure the Cuban people, who live in a total dictatorship, will benefit enormously from the arrival of the well-dressed American chattering classes.  I can't wait to see the home movies, can you?

August 7, 2015       Permalink

BIDEN AND CLINTON – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:  The GOP got all the attention last night, but there's real drama in the Democratic Party as well.  If Joe Biden jumps into the presidential race, the coronation of Queen Hillary might have to be canceled, and the gown sent back.  How do voters feel about the Dem contest?  From Rasmussen:

Worried that the controversies surrounding Hillary Clinton are wounding her chances for the presidency, some Democrats have begun pushing Vice President Joe Biden’s candidacy. Democratic voters are closely divided over a Biden presidential bid, but voters in general think he’d make a better president than Clinton.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 40% of Likely Democratic Voters believe Biden should run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. Slightly more (45%) think the vice president should sit this one out. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided.

Among all likely voters, 36% say Biden should run, but 46% disagree. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Thirty-eight percent (38%) think Biden would make a better president than Clinton. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say Clinton would be a better chief executive. One-in-three voters (33%) is undecided.

Among Democrats, however, the numbers are reversed. Forty-four percent (44%) of these voters believe Clinton would be the better president, while 32% say Biden would do a better job. Twenty-four percent (24%) are not sure.

Rasmussen Reports last pitted Biden against Clinton and several other prominent national Democrats in November, and he earned just seven percent (7%) support among likely Democratic voters to her 62%. In August of last year without Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren in the mix, Biden ran a distant second to Clinton- 63% to 12%.

COMMENT:  I don't sense much enthusiasm for either Hillary or Joe among the Democratic base.  I mean, neither is a member of an oppressed minority.  Both are here legally.  And neither has shouted "Death to America."  How good could they be?

August 7, 2015       Permalink

VENEZUELA DESCENDS – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  We haven't been covering this closely, but Venezuela's economy is collapsing, and the country is descending into chaos.   From panampost.com:

According to the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict, markets throughout the country have been looted over 50 times in the first half of the year. (Entorno Inteligente)

EspañolIt’s the law of the jungle in Venezuela, as shopping for groceries becomes an increasingly dangerous activity. As the shortage crisis worsens, more and more angry mobs are raiding the nation’s supermarkets, looting whatever basic goods they can find.

During the first half of 2015, the Venezuelan Observatory for Social Conflict (OVCS) registered no fewer than 132 incidents of looting or attempted looting at various stores throughout the country. In addition, Venezuelan consumers staged over 500 protests that condemned the lack of available products at state-run grocery stores, markets, and pharmacies.

COMMENT:  Notice that Hollywood stars, like Sean Penn, no longer rush to Venezuela to express solidarity with the revolution.  The revolution is going south. 

What happens in Venezuela is important.  Instability can affect the countries next door.  And Venezuela has been a kind of informal Iranian base in the Western Hemisphere. 

There does not seem to be much of an American policy to address the instability and violence.  But remember, it's Cheney's fault.

August 7, 2015       Permalink

CLOSELY WATCHED CHUCK – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  One of the most influential Democratic members of Congress has come out against the Iran nuclear deal.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, an influential Jewish Democrat who's poised to assume leadership of his party in the Senate, will oppose President Barack Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, he announced on Thursday evening.

"After deep study, careful thought and considerable soul-searching, I have decided I must oppose the agreement and will vote yes on a motion of disapproval," Schumer wrote in a 1,600-word post on the website Medium.

"I will vote to disapprove the agreement, not because I believe war is a viable or desirable option, nor to challenge the path of diplomacy," he added later. "It is because I believe Iran will not change, and under this agreement it will be able to achieve its dual goals of eliminating sanctions while ultimately retaining its nuclear and non-nuclear power."

Schumer's thinking on the deal has been closely watched since the plan to loosen sanctions on Tehran in exchange for access to potential nuclear sites was announced in early July.

He said in public comments over the past several weeks he was going through the deal with a "fine-tooth comb" and received briefings from top administration officials to digest the deal's inner workings.

His decision quickly provoked criticism from several former White House aides.

Former speechwriter Jon Favreau tweeted: "Chuck Schumer, who said it was a mistake to pass Obamacare, now comes out again the Iran Deal. This is our next Senate leader?"

COMMENT:  Schumer's vote was the most closely watched in Congress.  He has clout, at least for now.  There is already a rebellion on the Democratic left, led by the mental cases in moveon.org, to depose Schumer as heir apparent in the Senate.  Whether it succeeds may depend in part on whether Obama now tries to destroy Schumer.  If he were smart, and he's not, he'd show some graciousness toward a man who presumably acted on principle.  It's a good novel.

Of course, there's also the cynical interpretation – that Schumer's announcement was coordinated with the White House itself, that Schumer waited until enough Dems declared their support for the deal to insure that a presidential veto of a rejection would be upheld, then announced his opposition, giving him protection in New York while leaving the deal intact.

My own gut sense, and nothing more, is that Schumer did in fact act out of conviction.  Occasionally political people do.  If so, and if it costs him the Democratic leader position in the Senate, he will become a profile in courage.

August 7, 2015       Permalink

WRAP-UP – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  Who won last night?  We haven't gotten serious polls last night, so it's all speculation.  The feeling among most commentators is that Donald Trump hurt himself, and that Marco Rubio had a good night.

But there's one name that does stand out.  I admit to being biased, but the fact is that Carly Fiorina made a strong impression across the board.  Her name lit up social media.  She was on the morning shows.  She's gotten more publicity from last night than she's gotten from the entire campaign thus far.  From the Washington Examiner: 

CLEVELAND -- About an hour into the primetime debate of the top 10 candidates in the Republican presidential race, the conservative actor Nick Searcy tweeted, "I'm afraid @CarlyFiorina is winning the second debate too."

He was on to something. Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, shone earlier in the evening, when seven GOP candidates who didn't make the cut for the primetime session gathered for the night's first faceoff. For about an hour after that debate, the big story was Fiorina winning what was sometimes called the undercard session.

That news was not going to last long, because then came a primetime debate that was hugely entertaining but at times seemed in danger of veering off the rails with loopy and sometimes embarrassing answers from Donald Trump. A few of the candidates, like John Kasich, did well, but only Marco Rubio turned in a truly standout performance.

It was hard to declare a clear winner of the primetime debate. Combine the two sessions into one, however, and Fiorina emerged as the likely winner of the entire evening.

Fiorina has impressed crowds in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other key states. Wherever she speaks, audience members who've never seen her before express almost uniformly positive reactions. Those friendly receptions, however, have not translated into rising national poll numbers; hence Fiorina's appearance at the early, rather than the primetime, debate.

When the debate structure was first announced, Fiorina confidently predicted she would qualify for the primetime session. It didn't work out that way. So she made the best of the opportunity she had. She gave a biting commentary on Donald Trump. (She did it when asked, not volunteering.) A solid answer on cyber-security. A good, if oft-repeated, answer on Iran. A compelling explanation of her own conservatism. And in her final statement, a concise statement of her main focus, which is her pledge to fight Hillary Clinton every day of every week of every month in the coming campaign.

COMMENT:  A Rubio-Fiorina ticket?  Winning combination, but I don't know if the Republicans will get there.

This debate will be forgotten quickly.  We'll look to see the field narrowing, as it's much too unwieldy right now.  The next Republican debate will be September 16th at the Reagan Library in California. 

August 7,  2015    Permalink

AUGUST 6,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

MAIN DEBATE OVER – We'll have more reaction in the morning.  Initial reaction, including focus groups, seems to suggest that Donald Trump lost ground and that Marco Rubio and Dr. Ben Carson gained some support.  There were also very good words for Mike Huckabee.   Scott Walker seemed to be a neutral, along with Jeb Bush.  The focus was on Trump, who, when seen in the company of skilled political debaters, didn't come off as either statesmanlike or knowledgeable.  But I think it will take more debates to sort out the real winners and losers.  Too many on that platform.

THE OPENING ACT – An earlier debate featured those who didn't make the poll cut, and produced a clear winner:  Carly Fiorina.  Comments by observers made clear that Fiorina stood out from the pack, and clearly deserves a place on the larger stage.  I remain amazed that, given her superb performance on the stump, she hasn't moved the numbers at all.  Maybe the GOP really is just a bit too stodgy.  Carly is the only woman running, is lightning smart, and deserves more respect.  I expect to see her in the main tent next time.

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP – From Breitbart:  Thursday at a ceremony to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Voting Rights Act at the White House, President Barack Obama laughed as he said that voter fraud is not a “real problem” because “nobody wakes up and says I’m going to go vote in somebody else’s name.”  And he comes from Chicago?  I know he knows nothing about the world, but he doesn't even know about his own neighborhood.  There are many people voting in Chicago elections who haven't been on this Earth in years.

ANYONE IN THE WHITE HOUSE INTERESTED? – From AP:  Police in northwest Louisiana say an officer has died after being shot while on duty, and a manhunt for a suspect is under way.  Shreveport Police Cpl. Marcus Hines said at a press conference late Wednesday that the officer was shot while responding to a report of a suspicious person inside a home.  Hines says an armed man was apparently inside the residence, threatening to harm people.  Late report:  A suspect is now in custody.  The officer was the 20th killed this year in the United States.  I wonder if their lives matter to the people temporarily running the U.S. Government.

August 6, 2015       Permalink

AND SO IT BEGINS – AT 11:41 A.M. ET:  Iran is already showing contempt for the nuclear agreement.  And yet, Obama has no doubts about it.  A world turned upside down.  From The Wall Street Journal: 

WASHINGTON—Iran so far has refused to allow United Nations inspectors to interview key scientists and military officers to investigate allegations that Tehran maintained a covert nuclear-weapons program, the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said in an interview Wednesday.

Iran’s stance complicates the International Atomic Energy Agency’s probe into Tehran’s suspected nuclear-military program—a study that is slated to be completed by mid-December, as required by the landmark nuclear agreement forged between world powers and Iran on July 14 in Vienna.

The IAEA and its director-general, Yukiya Amano, have been trying for more than five years to debrief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, an Iranian military officer the U.S., Israel and IAEA suspect oversaw weaponization work in Tehran until at least 2003.

Mr. Amano said Tehran still hasn’t agreed to let Mr. Fakhrizadeh or other Iranian military officers and nuclear scientists help the IAEA complete its investigation. The Japanese diplomat indicated that he believed his agency could complete its probe even without access to top-level Iranian personnel.

“We don’t know yet,” Mr. Amano said about the agency’s interview requests. “If someone who has a different name to Fakhrizadeh can clarify our issues, that is fine with us.”

Tehran repeatedly has denied it ever had a secret nuclear weapons program.

COMMENT:  What a farce.  What a comedown for the United States to agree to a nuclear arrangement with a bunch of gangsters in Tehran.  But Barack wants it.  And Barack was sent to save us.  Wasn't he?

August 6, 2015       Permalink

VILE – AT 10:38 A.M. ET:   I will say it directly.  I was disgusted by President Obama's speech at American University yesterday, in which he tried to defend his Iran agreement.  Apparently, many others felt the same way.  The speech was cheap, deceptive, small-minded and deceptive.  Other than that, it was fine.  Brit Hume said it best at Fox:

On "Special Report" tonight, Brit Hume blasted President Obama's speech on the virtues of the nuclear agreement with Iran.

"Just because Iranian hardliners chant 'death to America' does not mean that’s what all Iranians believe," Obama said. "In fact, it’s those hardliners who are most comfortable with the status quo. It’s those hardliners chanting 'death to America' who have been most opposed to the deal. They are making common cause with the Republican caucus."

Hume pointed out that it's the Iranian leaders who are chanting "death to America," not some insignificant minority group.

He said the speech was completely characteristic of the president.

"It was dishonest, it was partisan, it was insulting," Hume stated.

Steve Hayes said it wasn't only a bad speech, it was the worst of Obama's entire presidency and maybe the most un-presidential speech he's ever heard.

And Cliff May and Jonathan Schanzer, at NRO online, demolish Obama's attempt to compare himself with John F. Kennedy:

Speaking at American University in defense of his nuclear deal with Iran, President Obama twice invoked President John F. Kennedy. To paraphrase Lloyd Benson, while we did not serve with Jack Kennedy, here are five reasons why President Obama is wrong to compare himself to Jack Kennedy:

1. For one, JFK never forked over $100 billion in sanctions relief to the Soviets as an inducement to make an arms-control deal. Obama plans to do exactly that.

2. JFK never expunged hundreds of KGB operatives from our sanctions list. Obviously, we didn’t sanction KGB agents back then, but Obama is now preparing to ease strictures on hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) members and businesses. They were put on the sanctions list not only for their role in nuclear proliferation, but also for terrorism, human-rights violations, and more.

3. JFK never agreed to a deal that would guarantee a stronger USSR in ten years. President Obama is preparing to do just that by providing Iran with a “patient pathway” to a nuclear weapon. All Iran needs to do is wait out the terms of the agreement, and in ten years it will be in possession of an industrial-sized nuclear program with the blessing of the international community. If Iran violates the agreement — and Iran has violated many agreements in the past — it can have nuclear weapons much sooner.

4. During his speech, Obama said the world was “more dangerous” during the Cold War. True, the threat of mutually assured destruction (MAD) was a palpable fear. But however aggressive and even evil the Soviets might have been, they did not believe in martyrdom — they did not believe that sacrificing their lives for their revolution would bring great rewards in the afterlife. The fundamentalists of Iran — and their Arab proxies, such as Hezbollah — most emphatically do. As historian Bernard Lewis has pointed out, for religious extremists, mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent — it’s an inducement.

5. President Obama ended his remarks by citing President Kennedy’s “wisdom” and lauded Kennedy’s “warning” that we should see conflict as inevitable. But President Kennedy also said that there was “one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender or submission.” Iran’s rulers have caused thousands of Americans to be killed and maimed in Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan. They continue to openly proclaim their long-term goal: “Death to America.” They believe that the U.S. has indeed submitted. If Congress approves this agreement, that perception will not be without justification.

So much for following in the footsteps of JFK.

COMMENT:  Absolutely dead on.  Kennedy actually ran to the right of Nixon on national defense in the 1960 election campaign.  And he never hesitated to call up reserves when a military threat warranted it.  He confronted the Soviet Union directly during the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Compare please to Obama's behavior regarding Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Obama is so inadequate.  He is, at best, a student-government president.

August 6, 2015       Permalink

GAME ON TONIGHT – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  The first debates of the 2016 presidential campaign will take place tonight, when Republican candidates debate each other.

There will actually be two debates, both on Fox.  The preliminary round will feature the candidates who didn't make the cut to get into the top ten.  That was based on polling numbers.  The main event, later in the evening, will feature the "top ten," but only according to those polls.  There is substantial controversy over how the candidates were picked.  It is noted, for example, that Carly Fiorina, whose appearances thus far have brought perhaps the most favorable press of any of the candidates, didn't make the cut for the main event.   She is also the only female candidate.  And Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, one of the most successful governors in the country, also didn't make the cut.  But Donald Trump did. 

A just-released poll gives some indication of Republican voter thinking before the debates.  From The Hill:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has the most positive image among Republican voters going into the first GOP presidential debate, according to a new poll.

A Gallup sampling released early Thursday shows Rubio getting the warmest reception from his party’s voters heading into the Fox News debate Thursday night.

Rubio receives a 52 percent favorability rating from potential GOP voters in 2016. That’s contrasted by a 14 percent unfavorability scoring.

Rubio is also well-recognized among Republicans, Gallup found, netting 66 percent familiarity with his party’s voters.

The results show that Rubio is both well-known and well-liked among likely voters, no small feat given the GOP’s crowded presidential field next year.

Republicans are currently weighing 17 options of their party’s presidential nomination.

Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) trails Rubio in the new poll, scoring 45 percent favorability and 7 percent unfavorability ratings.

Walker is also recognizable among potential GOP voters, nabbing a 52-percent familiarity rating among those polled.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson took third in Gallup’s sampling. He scored 42 percent favorability and 49 familiarity ratings from possible Republican voters.

COMMENT:  There are too many candidates, and it's hard to see how anyone can break out after one debate.  But we'll be eager to see how numbers change after tonight's events.

The news on the Dem side is that Hillary might face an indictment over her private e-mail server.  But why should that stand in her way?  If she becomes president they could put the red phone in her jail cell.

August 6, 2015       Permalink

ON THIS DAY – AT 8:47 A.M. ET:  On this day, 70 years ago, the world's first operational atomic bomb was dropped on the city of Hiroshima, Japan. 

Several days later a second atomic bomb was dropped on the city of Nagasaki.  On August 14th the Japanese surrendered.  A war that had begun with their invasion of Manchuria in 1931 ended within days of history's first use of atomic weapons.

We must be prepared for the intellectual hand-wringing that today's anniversary will bring, especially on the academic and political left.  No doubt there are still some "scholars" hanging around who will announce their finding that the use of the bomb was unnecessary, that Japan would have surrendered without it.  Actually, the number of people arguing that position has declined over the years, as more and more information has come to light.  The people who held the real power in Japan had no intention of surrendering, and a continuation of the war would have produced casualties in the millions.  In addition to the dropping of the two atomic bombs, the Soviet invasion of Korea that same week figured in the Emperor's decision to end the war on American terms.

At a time when we're examining possible "breakout" times for Iran to have an operational nuclear weapon after a decision to produce it, let us not forget that the first nuclear test took place in the New Mexico desert on July 16, 1945.  Hiroshima happened only three weeks later.  And this was 1945, before the age of high-speed computers that can cut development time.  Three weeks from first test to operational use.

The political left, which had no problem at all with the saturation bombings of Germany and Japan, when they were helpful to the Soviet Union, has for decades tried to send America on a guilt trip over the use of nuclear weapons.  Of course we regret the lives that were lost, as we always regret death and destruction in war, but guilt is not required.  In what is sometimes called the bloody arithmetic of war, the nuclear bombs reduced the ultimate death toll of World War II dramatically.  And as the late historian Paul Fussell, a soldier in the Pacific at the time of Hiroshima later wrote, recalling his thoughts when he learned of the atomic bomb's use, "We were going to live.  We were going to grow to adulthood after all."  For that we can be grateful.

August 6,  2015     Permalink